The FBI raided the Manhattan apartment of Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, in a move that the company claims was politically motivated. Early Wednesday morning, federal agents seized Coplan's electronic devices as part of an investigation into the planet's hottest prediction betting platform.
The platform had drawn attention for heavily favoring Donald Trump in the recent presidential election. It showed a 64.3% chance of victory, while mainstream polling showed a far closer race.
Polymarket’s projections ultimately aligned with Trump’s win, raising questions among regulators and Coplan's allies about the motives behind the raid. Others say this is simply part of a broader probe into the company for making it too easy for U.S. citizens to place bets via VPN.
A source close to Coplan said the FBI "staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons. This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election."
In a statement posted to X, Coplan questioned whether the administration was attempting a last-ditch attempt to target firms deemed aligned with political opponents. “We are deeply committed to being non-partisan,” he said, “but the incumbents should reflect on whether a more pro-business approach might have changed their fate.”
It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents. We are deeply committed to being non-partisan, and today is no different, but the incumbents should do some self-reflecting…
— Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) November 13, 2024
The raid has prompted a heated response from Polymarket's supporters, with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong saying (in a now-deleted post) it would “backfire” by bringing even more attention to Polymarket. Elon Musk, a Trump ally, weighed in, calling the raid "messed up."
Polymarket faced scrutiny after one mystery French trader, known as the "Trump whale," reportedly earned a $48 million profit after betting on Trump. This unprecedented bet volume, with the whale allegedly investing over $50 million, has led to some accusing Polymarket's odds of being artificially influenced, a potential issue for both market and electoral integrity.
Others contend this is a simple criminal case: Did Polymarket violate U.S. law by allegedly allowing U.S.-based users to bet on the site, which would contravene the platform's terms of service? A Polymarket spokesperson responded by insisting the company prohibits market manipulation and strives for transparency.
The Department of Justice and the White House have not commented, so the question of why Coplan's home was raided remains unanswered for now, fueling conspiracy theories about election interference on one side, and providing more evidence of government overreach on the other.
Ultimately, this investigation underscores the delicate intersection between tech, politics, and regulatory oversight.
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