Trump is Leading on Polymarket: Manipulation or Another Opinion?
The betting odds on the platform indicate a much higher probability of Trump’s victory than traditional polls. A French whale might be responsible for pushing the market odds.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the betting markets are heating up. Recent polling data presents a mixed picture: the chances are roughly 50-50. According to polls aggregated by The New York Times, Kamala Harris is leading by a small margin. As always, when it comes to predictions, there is a place for other opinions: on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, the odds are different: 60.5% on Trump’s victory.
The record-high odds of Trump’s victory raised questions, as they seemed disconnected from the real-world situation. Some claimed that they misrepresented the market and suggested manipulation.
It was soon revealed that a Polymarket user, “Fredi9999,” significantly influenced the market and pushed the odds higher on both the Popular Vote Winner and Presidential Election Winner markets. An anonymous political bettor, Domer, suggested that he has bet $26 million on Trump in total, mainly in the past two weeks. After analyzing betting and transaction patterns, other experts have suggested he might be acting from four different accounts — the top Trump whales on the platform. As there was no demand for that much ‘Kamala’ at the current prices, the market equation was distorted.
There is no answer as to who and why made the massive bet, but crypto Twitter is working on it via language and punctuation analysis, contact attempts, and slightly racist cliches. The wildest guesses so far include a risky wealthy Frenchman who either (1) truly believes in Trump, (2) is part of a political scheme that targets "contesting election results," or (3) wants to send Bitcoin skyrocketing. Some also think that this might be Kamala's backers hedging risks.
There is no direct confirmation to any of these allegations, but it is difficult to deny that somebody is putting strong pressure on the predictions market weeks before Election Day. While the underlying reasons might vary from financial conspiracy to simple human stubbornness or gambling fever, one fact remains: this money can sway public opinion in favor of Trump. Those who use Polymarket as a source of information to assess the actual odds might get confused, while the FOMO might push some users to join Trump’s tribe, further fueling the increase.
Traditional betting platforms are also leaning towards a Trump victory. However, as they do not disclose bettors' information, we cannot check whether the bets are fair.
The fact that a certain amount of money can easily influence Polymarket by 'bribing' the platform raises concerns over its reliability and resilience to manipulation as an information source.
At the same time, Polymarket is more like a casino than a think tank, so if somebody is ready to spend $26 million for Trump's glory, there is nothing to condemn. At least Polymarket allows other users to access the holders' information before jumping to wild conclusions.
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